| A new report from The Sentencing Project this week—America’s Incarceration Crossroads: Reversing Progress Amid Record-Low Crime Rates—highlights a troubling truth: while some of the country has spent the past decade reducing prison populations, Montana is moving sharply in the opposite direction. According to the study, Montana’s prison population increased by 32.4% between 2018 and 2023—the highest increase of any state in that time period. The report also shows that Montana’s prison population reached its peak in 2023, at the same time the report notes that national crime rates are at or near historic lows. This combination—record-low crime combined with rising imprisonment—points toward system-level choices, not changes in public safety. |
What These Findings Mean for Montana:
1. Our prison growth is out of step with national trends.
While many states have stabilized or reduced incarceration, Montana stands out for significant growth in a short period of time. A 32.4% increase over five years is not a minor fluctuation; it represents a major shift in how we incarcerate.
2. Crime isn’t driving this increase.
The Sentencing Project’s report makes clear that nationally, violent and property crime rates are at historically low levels. The fact that Montana’s incarceration hit its highest point during this period suggests policy, not crime, is the primary driver. This doesn’t mean crime isn’t happening or that accountability isn’t important; it means that incarceration rates are also shaped by policy decisions and that how we choose to respond to crime matters.
3. Policy decisions matter.
Sentencing structures, parole opportunities, probation revocations, and limited reentry pathways all shape the number of people behind bars. When incarceration rises even as crime falls, it signals that our systems are defaulting toward punishment rather than prevention and rehabilitation.
Why This Matters for Justice in Montana:
When prison populations grow:
More families are separated, often for reasons that have little to do with community safety.
Resources shift toward punishment rather than addressing root causes like mental health, trauma, addiction, and economic instability.
Opportunities for second chances shrink, even for those working hard to transform their lives.
Montana has an opportunity to understand why this growth is happening and what it will take to change course. A safer, more just Montana depends on policies that prioritize fairness, accountability, and rehabilitation, not simply expanding the number of people we incarcerate.
Why This Matters Even When Someone Isn’t Innocent:
MTIP’s work often focuses on wrongful convictions, but we advocate for accurate, accountable, and fair systems of Justice for everyone, including people experiencing unjust incarceration.
Unjust incarceration may include people who:
Received excessively long sentences; are kept in prison long after they pose little risk and have no meaningful pathway to parole; are incarcerated for technical violations rather than new crimes; or are trapped in systems that prioritize punishment over transformation.
This matters because:
– People can commit harm and still be capable of change.
– Accountability doesn’t require endless punishment.
– Communities are safer when people return home with support, skills, and stability—not additional trauma.
Further Reading:
1. Prisons do not rehabilitate without major structural change.
Research published in The Journal of Law and Economics finds that prisons are unlikely to reduce reoffending unless they are transformed into evidence-based, people-changing institutions focused on behavioral change, education, and skill-building.
2. Prevention—not incarceration—is the most effective path to public safety.
A major Brookings analysis highlights that community safety improves most when violence and harm are addressed like a public health issue: by reducing root causes, expanding community supports, and strengthening prevention.